Monday, May 22, 2006

Don't Put Much Faith in the "Experts"

John Stossel wrote an article about his Princeton economics teacher, Burton Malkiel. I have been reading, Mr. Malkiel's book and am almost finished. I'm quite impressed with his numbers concerning stock investment and his index-fund based investment strategy. I'll post more about the book when I'm finished with it.

Stossel talks about things I've already learned in the course of earning my MBA. Most experts cannot consistently pick stocks for a portfolio that beats the S&P 500. Sure every year there are lucky ones, but too many factors over the long run reduce even the most highly educated and savvy fund manager to scampering to beat the almighty S&P.

If you've been reading Cashtalk for awhile now, you already know this. Brett has posted an article about his own foray into the market (Brett would hardly call himself a savvy investor, but at least he tried!) and his recommendations for a stock market strategy here. And our stock market simulation game also proved that because of all the brokerage fees, picking and holding a stock would do just as well as buying and selling on a daily basis (or did it?).

So when you're deciding which fund to buy or which basket of stocks to hold, remember that odds are, buying the S&P 500 index fund will get you better or equivalent returns over the long run, with the bonus of having lower commissions and fees.

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